ʻEhia mau makahiki hou e hiki ai ke kaulana ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu?

Wahi a ka ʻikepili ʻoihana hou loa a me ka nānā ʻana i ke ʻano ma 2025, e hoʻomau ka ʻoihana mālama mālama i ka ulu wikiwiki i ka wā e hiki mai ana, a ke manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ʻia ka wela a hiki i ka liʻiliʻi o 2030, a neʻe mālie mai ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka pālākiō i ka hoʻomohala kiʻekiʻe. ʻO kēia ka wehewehe piha ʻana mai nā ana o nā kumu hoʻokele koʻikoʻi, ka ulu ulu ʻana o ka mākeke, ke kuhikuhi ʻana i ka ʻenehana a me nā pilikia.

1. Nā kumu hoʻokele kumu: kulekele + koi + ʻenehana "troika"

Ke hoʻomau nei ke kākoʻo kulekele

Ma lalo o ka pahuhopu "ʻelua carbon" o Kina, ua wehewehe maopopo ʻia ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu hou ma ke ʻano he kākoʻo nui no ke kūkulu ʻana i kahi ʻōnaehana mana hou. I ka makahiki 2025, e hoʻololi ka manaʻo kulekele i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i nā mīkini e pili ana i ka mākeke, me ka uku ʻana i ke kumu kūʻai uila, ke kūʻai ʻana i kahi wahi, nā kumu hoʻohālike e mālama ai i ka ikehu, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe. No ka laʻana, ua hoʻolauna nā wahi he nui i nā kulekele hoʻolimalima hiki ke mālama i ka ikehu e ʻimi i nā alaloa loaʻa no ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu e komo i ka mākeke mana.

Ma nā mākeke ʻē aʻe, ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻEulopa, ka Hikina Waena a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe e hoʻoulu i ka noi ma o nā haʻawina, nā ʻauhau ʻauhau a me nā pono hana hana kūloko. No ka laʻana, i ka pane ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai mālama ikehu i 25% i 2026, ʻike ʻo ʻAmelika i kahi wikiwiki e hoʻokomo i 2025.

Ke koi ikaika no ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke komo ʻana o ka ikehu hou

Ke hoʻomau nei ka piʻi ʻana o ka mana o ka ikehu hou (ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo Kina e ʻoi aku ma mua o 20% i 2025), a ʻo kona volatility e pono ai ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu no ka hoʻoponopono kiʻekiʻe a me ka pinepine. Ke piʻi nei ka māhele honua o ka waihona ikehu hou. I ka makahiki 2025, manaʻo ʻia ka mana o ka photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia i ka 490GW, e alakaʻi ana i ka ulu like ʻana o ka koi mālama mālama. Eia kekahi, ʻo nā hiʻohiʻona e kū mai ana e like me nā kikowaena data he koi pahū no ka "photovoltaic storage integration", a ʻo nā kikowaena data i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka photovoltaic storage-powered data ma ka Middle East ua waiwai nui.

ʻO ka holomua ʻenehana a me ka hoʻemi kumukūʻai

ʻO ka ʻenehana kelepona ʻenehana: ʻoi aku ka nui o nā pūnaewele pākaukau nui (500Ah+) a me nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu lōʻihi (4h+) e wikiwiki ana i kā lākou kaulana. Ma 2025, manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu e 15% -20% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 202435.

Ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā mea hou: Ua komo nā pāpaʻi sodium-ion i ke kahua kūʻai aku, a ke puka mālie nei nā mea maikaʻi o nā ʻoihana paʻa i ka palekana a me ke ola. ʻO 2025 paha ka makahiki mua o ka noi nui.

Hoʻonui naʻauao: Hoʻonui ka ʻenehana AI i ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana o ka ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu a me ka ʻōlelo aʻo hewa, a hoʻomaikaʻi ka ʻenehana māhoe kikohoʻe i ka hana a me ka mālama pono ʻana510.

2. Loaʻa ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke: Global multi-regional outbreak, hōʻike ʻia nā manawa kūpono

ʻO ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o ka mākeke kūloko

Kina: Ma 2025, manaʻo ʻia ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao kumu-grid e ʻoi aku ma mua o 110GWh, me Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang a me nā panalāʻau ikaika hou e alakaʻi i ke ala; ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ʻoihana a me ka ʻoihana ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka mea hoʻohana ma mua o 50%, a ua lilo ka kūʻai kikowaena o nā ʻoihana hoʻohana kiʻekiʻe ma waena o Kina.

ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa: ʻO ka wikiwiki e hoʻokomo i ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu pre-meter ua alakaʻi i ka mana hou i hoʻokomo ʻia e ʻoi aku ma mua o 45GWh i 2025, a ua huki ka mākeke kiʻekiʻe-nui i nā hui Kina e kau i ka mana hana kūloko.

ʻEulopa: Ua oʻo nā ʻāpana kālā a me nā ʻenehana mākeke, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei ka ulu ʻana ma mua o 60% i 2025, me Kelemania a me Sepania ka mākeke hoʻonui nui.

Hikina Waena: Ua hoʻolālā nā hoʻolālā hoʻololi o ka ikehu hou ma Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i nā papahana GWh-level, hiki ke lilo i ʻehā o ka mākeke mālama ikehu nui loa o ka honua ma 2025.

Hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā manawa ala

Waihona nui: ʻO ka nui o ka hiki ke hoʻokomo hou i ka honua no ka ʻoi aku ma mua o 70%, me nā papahana 10GWh-level ma ka Middle East a me nā kikowaena mana mālama mana kūʻokoʻa ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

ʻO ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ʻenehana a me ka ʻoihana: ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke ma waho o 100%, a ua ʻokoʻa nā hiʻohiʻona noi (e like me nā kikowaena data a me nā paka ʻoihana).

ʻO ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu no ka wā lōʻihi: Ua piʻi ka noi no nā ʻōnaehana ʻoi aku ma mua o 4 mau hola, a ua wikiwiki ka hoʻolaha ʻana o nā ʻenekini kahe a me nā ʻenehana mālama ikehu ea.

3. ʻO ke kuhikuhi ʻana i ka ʻenehana: mai ka "nui" a i ka "naʻauao"

ʻO nā pūnaewele pākaukau nui a me ka ʻōnaehana hoʻohui '

I ka makahiki 2025, hiki i ka 400Ah+ ka nui o nā pūnaewele pākahi, a ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu 20 kapuaʻi ma mua o 8MWh. ʻO nā hui alakaʻi e like me CATL a me Envision Energy e alakaʻi i ka hoʻonui ʻenehana.

Ka holomua i ka ʻenehana mālama ikehu hou

ʻO nā pāpaʻi sodium-ion: BYD, CATL a me nā mea ʻē aʻe i hoʻokumu i nā huahana mālama ikehu hoʻolaʻa, a ʻo ke kumukūʻai hana nui e manaʻo ʻia e haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā pā lithium i 2025.

ʻO nā ʻōhua paʻa paʻa: Qingtao Energy, Tailan New Energy a me nā papahana ʻē aʻe i hoʻokomo ʻia i loko o ka hana, me ka palekana kiʻekiʻe i hoʻololi ʻia i nā hiʻohiʻona mālama mālama ikehu nui.

Ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ʻano Grid: Ua hoʻopuka ʻo Huawei a me Sungrow i ka ʻenehana kākoʻo mānoanoa ikaika, a hiki ke piʻi i ka 7GW i 2025.

Naʻauao a me nā mea hou

Hoʻoikaika ʻo AI i ka wānana ola pākaukau a me ka hana palekana a me ka mālama ʻana, a me nā mea hana silicon carbide (SiC) e hoʻomaikaʻi i ka maikaʻi o nā mea hoʻololi e mālama i ka ikehu, e hoʻonui ana i ka nui o ka ikehu ʻōnaehana e 30%.

4. Hiki i nā pilikia a me nā pilikia

Hoʻololi hou i ka ʻoihana a me ka hoʻokūkū ikaika

I ka makahiki 2024, e alakaʻi ʻia ke kaʻina o loko o ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa i ka puka ʻana o nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi a me nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi. I ka makahiki 2025, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke o nā ʻoihana 10 kiʻekiʻe ma mua o 85%, a ʻo nā ʻoihana me ka ʻenehana hope a i ʻole ke kaulahao kapikala palupalu e alo i ka hoʻopau ʻia.

ʻO ka maopopo ʻole o nā kulekele a me nā mīkini mākeke

Ma kekahi mau ʻāina, ʻaʻole kūpono nā lula hoʻouna ʻana i ka ikehu, a ʻaʻole paʻa ka loaʻa kālā o ke awāwa kiʻekiʻe; ʻO ke kulekele tariff US a me nā koi o ka hana kūloko i ka Middle East e hoʻonui i ka paʻakikī o ka hele ʻana i nā ʻāina ʻē.

ʻO nā bottlenecks ʻenehana a me nā koina kumukūʻai

Hoʻopili ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka uila sodium e ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai lithium, ke kiʻekiʻe o ke kumukūʻai hana nui o nā pā paʻa paʻa, a pono e hoʻemi hou ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu lōʻihi ma lalo o 0.3 yuan / kWh.

5. Manaʻo e hiki mai ana: Hiki ke manaʻo ʻia ka ulu kiʻekiʻe ma mua o 2030

Ka nui kūʻai

Ua manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu honua ma mua o 250GWh ma 2025, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke ma mua o 200 biliona yuan; i ka makahiki 2030, hiki i ka 220GW ka nui o ka waihona ikehu hou a Kina, a ʻo ka huina o ka waiwai o ka ʻoihana e ʻoi aku ma mua o 3 trillion yuan.

Kuhikuhi waiwai

ʻO ka loulou pale kiʻekiʻe: Loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā ikaika a me ka uku nui o nā mea hoʻololi e mālama ai i ka ikehu (PCS) a me nā mea hoʻohui ʻōnaehana (e like me Sungrow).

ʻO nā ʻoihana alakaʻi ʻenehana: CATL (nā pūnāwai pākahi), Haichen Energy Storage (ka uila sodium), Huawei (grid-type energy storage), etc.

Ke ala hoʻopaʻa ikehu no ka wā lōʻihi: Ua loaʻa i nā pāhana wai kahe a me nā papahana mālama mālama ikehu i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ke kulekele a kūpono no ka hoʻolālā lōʻihi.

E hoʻomau ka "ahi" o ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu ma ka liʻiliʻi a hiki i 2030, akā e hoʻololi ke kumu hoʻohālike mai ka hoʻonui nui ʻana i nā hana ʻenehana a hoʻomaʻemaʻe i ka mākeke. I nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana, ʻo nā ʻoihana me nā ʻenehana koʻikoʻi a me nā mana hoʻonohonoho honua e hoʻomalu i ka mākeke, a me ka ikaika o ke kākoʻo kulekele, ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻemi ʻana i ke kumukūʻai ʻenehana, a me ka holomua o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka mākeke mana he mau kī nui no ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka ʻoihana. Hiki i nā mea hoʻolale kālā ke nānā aku i nā sub-sectors e like me ka mālama nui ʻana, ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ʻenehana a me ka ʻoihana, a me nā pā uila sodium / solid-state.